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As with every election, the April 28, 2025, vote delivered its share of surprises.
Still, the overall result aligned with expectations. The final 338Canada projection had the Liberals at 42.5% of the vote and 182 seats, and the Conservatives at 38.5% with 127 seats—predicting a 4-point Liberal lead and a likely majority.

In the end, the Liberals secured 43.7% of the vote (with 169 candidates elected), while the Conservatives received 41.3% (with 144 candidates elected). The NDP underperformed by 2 points relative to polling—the only notable deviation—while the Liberals and Conservatives exceeded projections by 1.2 and 2.8 points, respectively, both within the margin of error.

Mark Carney’s Liberals didn’t achieve the majority they were aiming for. Still, they emerged with a strong minority government, likely to count on the support of a weakened NDP in most cases. This gives them a decent level of stability for the months ahead.

Foreign Interference

The Liberal Party attributes its win to the competence of its leader and the trust he inspires among a broad cross-section of Canadians. That’s understandable—and not entirely wrong—especially when it comes to Mark Carney’s economic credentials in the current climate. Still, as almost every commentator has pointed out, the real game-changer—the factor that made a Liberal win even possible after seeming out of reach just months ago—was Donald Trump. His declarations of economic war, his insults, and his provocations dramatically reshaped Canada’s political landscape.

For years, Canada has rightly investigated allegations of covert foreign meddling in our politics. Trump, by contrast, intervened in a blunt, brash, and unapologetically public way.

The result was a political realignment. What had been a fragmented landscape—split among Liberals, Conservatives, the Bloc, the NDP, and other minor parties—suddenly narrowed into an almost two-party system, with the Liberals and Conservatives combining for nearly 85% of the vote. That kind of consolidation had not been seen since 1958.

Relative to the 2021 election, the Bloc lost 16% of its support. The Green Party was down 48%. The NDP dropped by 65%. The People’s Party of Canada—twice as popular as the Greens in 2021—saw 86% of its support evaporate.

In the face of Trumpism, voters flocked to the perceived safety of the Liberal and Conservative brands, whose vote shares jumped 34% and 23%, respectively, compared to 2021. Of all the smaller parties, only the Bloc Québécois managed to hold on to any real ground.

A Stable Government, a High-Stakes Negotiation

Predicting the future is always tricky—and this time, even more so. This race was defined less by policy proposals than by contrasting personalities and leadership credentials in the face of Trump.

Mark Carney began his campaign by pledging to cut taxes and eliminate the carbon tax for individuals—proposals borrowed from the Conservative platform. But after that, he remained vague about what direction his government would take, focusing instead on positioning himself as the best leader to handle relations with the White House. That message carried him to victory. In that sense, Carney has effectively been handed a blank check to renegotiate Canada’s trade relationship with the United States.

But the road ahead won’t be simple. Carney faces two major challenges.

First, he must identify areas of potential compromise that could satisfy President Trump without fracturing Canadian unity. Softwood lumber and supply management—particularly sensitive topics in Quebec—top the list. Any concessions there could have serious political consequences.

Second, Carney must keep the talks focused on trade and avoid getting pulled into Trump’s unpredictable style of bargaining. The U.S. president may try to expand the scope of negotiations to include unrelated issues like military spending, banking regulations, Great Lakes governance, drug pricing, bilateral security arrangements, or Canadian cultural subsidies—topics far removed from free trade but potentially used as leverage.

For many Canadian businesses, this means rethinking strategy. The threat of tariffs, sector-specific restrictions, or reduced access to the U.S. market demands a reassessment of supply chains, expansion plans, and target markets. But beyond playing defense, it’s also a chance to rethink broader positioning: in a world where economics and diplomacy are increasingly intertwined—often unpredictably—companies that can demonstrate strategic value in terms of jobs, innovation, or resilience will be in a stronger position to shape policy.

The Sprint and the Crossroads

Though still in its early days, the Carney government appears likely to follow a two-phase trajectory.

The first phase—unpredictable but not immediately risky—will center on trade negotiations with the United States. Carney’s mandate is clear, and the electorate seems willing to give him time, recognizing the complexity of dealing with an erratic and unconventional president.

Few question Carney’s ability to lead these talks. Assuming they last 12 to 18 months, it’s likely his government will face little internal pressure during that time. Nor is there any urgency to roll out a bold new policy agenda while the spotlight remains fixed on the U.S.

Once the negotiations wrap up—assuming they lead to some kind of agreement—the government will face a fork in the road. That’s when Act Two of the Carney era will begin, and the Liberals will need to make a defining strategic choice: continue Justin Trudeau’s agenda with minor tweaks, or pivot and give Carney’s government a distinct identity, breaking from his predecessor’s legacy.

Starting in 2026, one path could see Carney focus on Canada’s economic rebuilding—putting aside identity politics, which loomed large under Trudeau. Alternatively, he could revive the themes of recent years—Indigenous reconciliation, cultural identity, and climate action—once the U.S. file is closed. Various hybrids are also possible.

It’s far too early to tell where Carney’s instincts and ambitions will lead. But whatever path he chooses will shape the Liberal Party’s positioning in the next election—and determine whether its opponents are energized or listless. Next time, they may not have a chance to run against Mr. Trump, or Mr. Trudeau.

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